** Want FOX News Halftime Report in your inbox every day? Sign up here **
PRESENTING YOUR GOVERNMENTAL POWER RANKINGS
In times of testing the rhythms of typical life can be a convenience, so let then the return of the Halftime Report Power Rankings be a convenience to you.
We’re going to start our rankings for this election cycle with, what else, the Electoral College. We hope what you find below to be self-explanatory, however initially a few notes for users.
We have actually arranged the 50 states and the District of Columbia into five classifications: Those states Democrat Joe Biden is most likely to win, those states in which Biden has an advantage however the race is competitive, or there is a “lean,” those states that are pure gamble, those states that are leaning towards President Trump but stay competitive and those states that are likely to elect the incumbent.
As you will see, there are sufficient electoral votes in the gamble classification to put both sides within reach of triumph. However you will also see that Democrats are starting with a benefit. Taken together “likely” and “lean” Democratic states account for 249 electoral votes, just 21 shy of the needed 270.
Republicans open the bidding with 186 electoral votes on their side of the ledger, however that is typical of a party that tends to fare badly in largely inhabited areas. Democrats can depend on behemoths like New York and California while Texas is the only reliably red state amongst those with 20 or more electoral votes. Every presidential election is a test of whether Republicans can bring sufficient medium sized swing states together to get the task done.
We have ranked the states in the “gamble” classification based on their competitiveness, that is to say in order of which specifies we believe are the closest. The “lean” states are only noted by their number of electoral votes and the “most likely” states are simply by alphabetical order. You will find the most competitive states at the top of the note and the others below the fold.
You will most likely disagree with our judgement. That’s excellent! We rely on our readers to not only keep us truthful in our evaluations, but also to tell us what they are seeing and hearing in their own necks of the woods. Compose to us and inform us what you believe.
Please bear in mind that it’s early, really little ballot has actually been done so far and the political repercussions of an unprecedented shutdown produce a very unpredictable environment. We expect these rankings to change and alter typically.
That’s all part of the enjoyable.
(103 electoral votes)
10 electoral votes
2016 results: Trump 47.2 percent, Clinton 46.5, others 6.3 percent
Perhaps no state has actually been so directly divided for so long as Wisconsin. Big wins by Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 persuaded Democrats that the Badger State was safe area, however Obama’s winning union departed with him, putting the state back on a knife’s edge. George W. Bush missed here by less than half of a point in both of his runs and even a casual observer of state politics understand that it’s unsightly business. The recent brawl over holding an in-person main election throughout the coronavirus lockdown was evidence enough of that. Wisconsin wants to us like Trump’s best choice to hang on to one of the three “blue wall” states he flipped in2016 It’s considerably whiter than Pennsylvania and Michigan and the Republican device in the state is well oiled. Biden, however, sees lots of pledge. Clinton missed out on Obama’s 2012 number by nearly a quarter million votes– 10 times Trump’s margin of success.
18 electoral votes
2016 result: Trump 51.3%, Clinton 43.2%, others 5.5%
For the very first time in more than 20 years, the Buckeye State was not at the heart of the governmental battleground map in2016 Donald Trump opened a lead coming out of his nomination at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland and never looked back. Trump went on to acquire an 8-point success, the largest success margin by a presidential candidate in Ohio given that George H.W. Bush in1988 Today, like Bush, Trump is facing a prospective reversal in Ohio as an incumbent. Democrats on the state and federal level have actually revealed highly in the past 4 years, especially pro-union Sen. Sherrod Brown The essential battlefield in between Trump and Joe Biden will be the state’s northern tier, house to eight of the 9 counties that went from red to blue from 2012 to2016 Voters who live around Toledo and Cleveland, your break is over. It’s back to being at the center of the storm.
29 electoral votes
2016 result: Trump 48.6%, Clinton 47.4%, others 4%
With a huge cache of 29 electoral votes and a long history of excruciatingly close elections, consisting of the hanging chads of 2000, the Sunshine State is the king of the swing states. Because George W. Bush‘s 537- vote success 20 years ago, the state has actually divided evenly for Republican and Democratic presidential candidates. The previous two elections were both decided by less than 2 points. In 2016, it tried to find a time like Donald Trump might be on his method to a big (by Florida requirements) win, however the race closed at the end and ended up as a nail-biter. Considering that then, Republicans have flourished in Florida, with statewide wins for Senate and Governor in spite of headwinds in2018 However 2020 guarantees a return of the old Florida design in which the Democratic strongholds of the south match up with Republican districts to the north with the prime fight zone along the I-4 corridor through Tampa and Orlando.
11 electoral votes
2016 result: Trump 48.1%, Clinton 44.6%, others 7.3%
Arizona has about as much experience with swing-state politics as it finishes with blizzards, however it’s time to start shoveling. In the past 70 years, simply one Democrat has actually carried the Grand Canyon State: Expense Clinton nipped Bob Dole in Clinton’s 1996 re-elect. Otherwise, Barry Goldwater‘s house state has actually been a bastion for not just Republicans, but conservatism. Trump’s comparatively weak performance in 2016 is owed to a number of factors, consisting of the decision by lots of standard conservatives to vote for a 3rd party or remain the race in protest of Trump’s candidateship. However the main motorist of political change in the state has actually been the influx of Americans from other states into Arizona. With a growing economy and an appealing environment for retired people, the state’s population has increased by 50 percent considering that the millenium. Over the exact same duration, the state’s Hispanic population increased from 25 percent to 31 percent.
20 electoral votes
2016 election result: Trump 48.2%, Clinton 47.5%, other 4.3%
There are a great deal of methods to discuss how Democrats decided on Biden for their candidate, however none is as clear as Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes. A local of Scranton in the state’s industrial east, Biden epitomizes the conventional Democratic politics of the state: small amounts, blue-collar appeal and a rustic style. Hillary Clinton‘s loss in huge, blue Pennsylvania was a low point for the modern-day Democratic Party, one they believe Biden will reverse. However Trump is not without advantages. Those exact same voters who had supported Democrats like Biden in the past show a strong affinity for the incumbent. The reality may be that Democrats have lost places like Wilkes-Barre and Scranton and will need to make up the difference in other places. Secret battlefields will be in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh residential areas where Republicans should stop their continuous losses and in urban centers where Democrats need to stimulate African-American citizens who were cool on Clinton.
15 electoral votes
2016 election outcome: Trump 49.8%, Clinton 46.2%, other 4%
The Tar Heel state belonged to the Solid South for Republicans for 40 years till Barack Obama‘s narrow win in2008 Republicans brought the state back with small margins in the next 2 contests, however North Carolina is back in play in a huge way. With a Democratic governor, a competitive race for freshman Sen. Thom Tillis‘ seat and rough parity in voter registrations, Carolina Blue looks very possible. Like Obama before him, Trump is going to be re-nominated in Charlotte, but hopes to avoid Obama’s fate in November here. Charlotte matters bigly. Its county, Mecklenburg, was an unusual bright area for Hillary Clinton, who outperformed Obama in the Queen City’s suburbs. If Biden can broaden her edge with the state’s a great deal of upscale voters and reverse a few of her slide with black turnout, this will get to be a close race very rapidly.
THE RULEBOOK: AIN’T THAT THE FACT
” Man is quite an animal of habit. A thing that rarely strikes his senses will normally have but little impact upon his mind.”– Alexander Hamilton, Federalist No. 27
TIME OUT: CHEERS, MARJORIE
BBC: “Standing in the packed streets of Versailles, France, 75 years ago, Marjorie Morgan celebrated VE Day. Just hours before, she had driven an Allied general to Reims, and stood outside as a German basic signed the genuine surrender to end World War 2 in Europe. ‘To me it was simply a task, it was something you consider afterwards,’ she said. While the 98- year-old believes there was absolutely nothing exceptional about her function throughout the war, hers is one of the numerous incredible stories of sacrifice made by individuals from communities throughout Wales all those years back. Today, like others who keep in mind that time, Marjorie will celebrate the anniversary of VE Day on a much smaller scale … Marjorie, like countless females, joined the Auxiliary Territorial Service (ATS), the ladies’s branch of the British Army during the war effort. After investing years as an army driving instructor, by 1945 she was driving generals, and ended up driving to the Supreme Headquarters Allied Expeditionary Force (SHAEF) in Reims, where General Alfred Jodl, German Chief of Operations, signed the unconditional surrender.”
Flag on the play? – Email us at HALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COM with your suggestions, comments or concerns.
Typical approval: 452 percent
Average disapproval: 50 percent
Net Rating: -4.8 points
Change from one week ago: no change in points
[Average includes: CNBC: 46% approve – 54% disapprove; Monmouth University: 44% approve – 51% disapprove; PRRI: 43% approve – 54% disapprove; IBD: 44% approve – 44% disapprove; Gallup: 49% approve – 47% disapprove.]
WANT MORE HALFTIME REPORT?
You can join Chris and Brianna every day on Fox Country. It’ll be the exact same behind-the-scenes take a look at your favorite political note, only from their remote places throughout this unmatched time. Click here to sign up and enjoy!
LEAN REPUBLICAN POLITICIAN
(60 electoral votes)
38 electoral votes
2016 outcome: Trump 52.1%, Clinton 43.1%, others 4.8%
Democrats love Texas, or maybe it would be better put to say Democrats enjoy the idea of Texas as a swing state. Since Republicans grabbed America’s second-most populated state 40 years ago, Democrats have tried to take it back. That fixation helps describe why they are so eager on contending in a stat where they took a 9-point thumping four years back. What Democrats see when they look at Texas is a place where Republican politicians are on the decrease with the state’s plentiful population of well-to-do rural white citizens which the numbers of young, less-conservative voters is growing. As was evidenced in their pyrite expedition for former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, Texas Democrats can be competitive under the best scenarios. But look at the top of the tally in2018 While unpopular Sen. Ted Cruz struggled to keep his seat, Gov. Greg Abbot stormed to victory in a year where Republican politicians were in huge trouble. Texas might end up as a close race, however it will suggest a blue stampede in 2020.
16 electoral votes
2016 results: Trump 50.4%, Clinton 45.4%, others 4.2%
Whatever that makes Democrats positive about Georgia is true. The state’s population is young and significantly ethnically varied. Long-held Republican districts in the Atlanta residential areas are significantly tough for the GOP to keep as college-educated voters avoid the celebration. All real. And yet … We go through the Democratic mania for Georgia every 2 years, and in some cases it gets pretty near to the real thing. In 2018, Democrats came within a little bit more than a point of recovering the guv’s estate. And definitely the state’s Republicans are a mess, as illustrated by the ugly primary of that year and the one for Senate this cycle. Democrats’ struggle in Georgia stays an unwieldy union in between moderate rural whites who were long the driving force in the party’s politics and more severe voices on the left, like 2018 gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams Biden needs to have the ability to outperform Hillary Clinton if he can win support from both groups, however it will not be simple.
6 electoral votes
2016 election result: Trump 51.2%, Clinton 41.7%, other 7.1%
Trump’s 2016 Iowa victory was genuinely impressive. A double-digit spread in a state that had sided with Democrats in six of the 7 previous elections may be better evidence of how Trump improved politics than anything else. Trump’s 5-point improvement over Mitt Romney‘s 2012 displaying in Iowa was the biggest of any of the 5 states that went from blue to red 4 years back. It can be said of some other states that Democrats lost, however it’s right to say in Iowa that Republicans won. Iowa’s population is 90 percent white and the state is home to large numbers of Evangelical Christians, key demographics for Trump. Democrats’ hopes count on re-engaging the great deals of union employees in the eastern part of the state, choosing off the state’s few rural precincts and hoping that farmers’ resentment over Trump’s trade wars will cool their ardor for the incumbent.
(36 electoral votes)
16 electoral votes
2016 election outcome: Trump 47.3%, Clinton 47%, other 5.7%
In his 2012 re-elect, Barack Obama won Michigan by more than 9 points. That makes Trump’s breathtakingly narrow win the largest shift from red to blue of any state he turned 4 years ago aside from Iowa. But what Trump might view as his peak, Democrats view as their nadir. In no state was Hillary Clinton’s underperformance more painfully obvious. She missed her marks not just with African-American citizens in Detroit but with blue-collar, union-friendly white citizens beyond the city. But because 2016, Democrats have actually come back strong in Michigan, sweeping every statewide office and recovering two House seats. And certainly Biden will not make Clinton’s mistake of ignoring the Great Lakes State. Surveys reveal a constant advantage for Biden, but then once again they had similar findings at this point in 2016.
6 electoral votes
2016 result: Clinton 47.9%, Trump 45.5%, others 6.6%
Nevada’s political story in the past 20 years has actually resembled that of much of the West: expanding population growth has actually made the once Republican-leaning state much more Democratic. Democrats now hold the governorship, both Senate seats and 3 of four Home seats. In 2016, Trump did somewhat worse in his share of the vote than Mitt Romney 4 years prior however still handled to come much closer than his predecessor’s 5-point loss. In no state was Hillary Clinton‘s underperformance compared to Barack Obama more obvious than in the Silver State, where she missed his 2012 mark by more than 4 points. Clinton bled assistance to small prospects and sloe Nevada’s special “none of the above” choice. Democrats feel confident that the better liked Biden will prosper in Nevada, specifically given the state’s strong organized labor movement.
10 electoral votes
2016 result: Clinton 46.4%, Trump 44.9%, others 8.7%
Oh how Republican politicians have actually yearned to brink Minnesota into the fold of other Midwestern, red-tinted states in spite of 48 years of beats. And their loss in 2016 by less than 2 points– the closest considering that Walter Mondale‘s paper-thin home state win in 1984– has actually made it a lot more tantalizing for them. The cause for Republican hope in the North Star State remains in part due to Hillary Clinton‘s abysmal 6-point drop compared to Barack Obama in 2012, however also demographics. With a population that is 84 percent white, Minnesota appears like it ought to be favorable to Republicans. But compared to its neighbors, Minnesota is in fact rather varied. The state has likewise seen vigorous population development and kept a relatively low average age while states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio have struggled. Group Trump is wagering that they can drive Biden’s numbers low enough to bring the state back into play, however Biden is beginning with a great hand.
4 electoral votes
2016 election outcome: Clinton 46.8%, Trump 46.5%, others 6.7%
New Hampshire is an independent state in every sense. It’s New England’s only swing state and prizes it’s political unpredictability, whether it’s a main contest or a general election. On the presidential level, the state has definitely had a Democratic tilt. No Republican politician has won the Granite State because George W. Bush in2000 Hillary Clinton came close in 2016, however. Her third-of-a-point margin of victory was the tiniest for a Democrat in the state since Woodrow Wilson in1916 Trump’s success for many years ago with the blue-collar white voters of the economically having a hard time northern and western parts of the states as well as amongst citizens in the southern tier who fled Massachusetts’ high taxes makes New Hampshire the leading prospect for a blue-to-red flip this cycle. Democrats, meanwhile, hope Biden’s appeal to middle-class white citizens will take the state out of play.
(126 electoral votes)
Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.
(213 electoral votes)
Support The Smilington Post
Help us tell more of the stories that matter">Buy one of our staff a latte!
California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Washington, D.C., Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York City, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia and Washington.
AUDIBLE: MIC CHECK
” Today at our news briefing, there was an audio glitch. And it seemed like I had stated a bad word– a word I would never ever say nor have I ever said. No possibility in any way shape, kind or style.”– West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice( R) in a declaration after a number of people said it sounded like he stated,” if they ‘f– ing’ follow the guidelines to keep West Virginians safe” during a press conference on Monday.
ANY GIVEN SUNDAY
Tune in this weekend as Mr. Sunday sits down with Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine and Dr. Tom Inglesby from the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. Enjoy “Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace” Examine regional listings for broadcast times in your location.
#mediabuzz – Host Howard Kurtz has the current take on the week’s media protection. Enjoy #mediabuzz Sundays at 11 a.m. ET.
Share your color commentary: Email us at HALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COM and please ensure to include your name and home town.
THEY MAKE THE ROCKIN’ WORLD GO ‘ROUND
Page 6: “Instead of shredding his guitar, Queen’s Brian May ripped his fat bottom. The Queen guitar player and astrophysicist broke the news with an Instagram selfie from the healthcare facility using a face mask with a nurse standing behind him– writing that he ripped his ‘Gluteus Maximus to shreds in a moment of over-enthusiastic gardening.’ … ‘Yes, I have actually been peaceful. Factor?,’ describing his absence on social networks, ‘Along with getting over-stretched and bothered by too numerous needs … I handled to rip my Gluteus Maximus to shreds in a moment of over-enthusiastic gardening,’ stated the 72- year-old rocker. The gluteus maximus muscle is located in the butts and is concerned as among the greatest muscles in the body. The muscle is accountable for the movement of the hip and thigh. The gardener lover went on, ‘So suddenly I find myself in a healthcare facility getting scanned to discover exactly how much I’ve really harmed myself. Turns out I did a thorough job …'”
AND NOW A WORD FROM CHARLES …
” In the face of an uniquely dangerous hazard, we Americans have problem recalibrating our conventional (and laudable) commitment to private rights and civil liberties. That is the basic factor we have actually been so sluggish in buckling down about Ebola.”– Charles Krauthammer (1950-2018) composing in the Washington Post on Oct. 16, 2014.
Chris Stirewalt is the politics editor for Fox News. Brianna McClelland added to this report. Want FOX News Halftime Report in your inbox every day? Sign up here
Subscribe to the newsletter news
We hate SPAM and promise to keep your email address safe